STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN ELECTRONIC COMMERCE AND CONSUMER BEHAVIOR DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN LITHUANIA

Abstract

The global COVID-19 pandemic and quarantine measures have significantly changed consumer behaviour when purchasing goods and services online. The e-commerce sector, which has grown significantly in recent years, has made an even bigger breakthrough. During the quarantine period, businesses had to reorient to the changed consumer behaviour, thus dozens of new online stores appeared in the e-commerce market in Lithuania, and the incumbents recorded several times higher sales (revenue) growth rates. The article analyzes the trends of online shopping, the behaviour of consumers online shopping and the statistical analysis of online shopping during the COVID-19 quarantine period, based on scientific literature sources and statistical data analysis.

The object of the research – changes in e-commerce and consumer behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The aim of the study is to analyze the changes in e-commerce and consumer online shopping during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Research tasks:

1. To present the trends of e-commerce and the behavior of consumers buying online in a theoretical aspect.
2. To analyze statistical changes in e-commerce during the COVID-19 pandemic in Lithuania.
3. To analyze the behaviour of e-commerce consumers during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Research methods: analysis of scientific literature, data analysis method - descriptive statistics.

Were are analyzed the activity data of the largest parcel (courier) services LTD “DPD Lietuva”, JSC “Lietuvos pastas”, LTD ”Venipak Lietuva” and LTD “Omniva LT”.

It has been established that in 2020 the income of these companies rose from 7.8 percent AB “Lietuvos Paštas” up to 103 percent of LTD “Omniva LT”. In the first half of the 2021, courier services felt the rise of e-commerce, the number of parcels increased by 50-70 percent. compared to in the first half of 2020. According to the data of the Department of Statistics, in the first quarter of 2021, courier sales revenue rose 43.6 percent. According to a survey conducted by Swedbank, in the first half of 2021, the bank's customers spent at least 754 million euros in Lithuanian e-shops. This amount increased by 55% compared to the same period last year.

The largest e-commerce centers in Lithuania, “pigu.lt” and “varle.lt”, saw an 80 percent increase in turnover in the second quarter of 2020, during the first quarantine. Companies expanded their shopping cart: increased a range of children's goods, accessories, textiles, furniture, footwear, cosmetics, also launched to sell food products.

Since 2020, when the first quarantine was announced, the number of people who bought or ordered goods or services online has jumped 6.2 percent to 60.0 percent, while this indicator has been growing steadily in previous years, by about 5 percent each year.

Comparing 2021 data with the pre-pandemic period, most people aged 25-34 bought online (90.8percent). The number of buyers in the age group 35-44 increased especially (16.3 percent) and it makes up 81.9 percent of all persons in that age group. 86.9 percent of 16-29 year olds shop online. In 2021, 54.6 percent of 45-54 Lithuanians surveyed ordered or bought goods or services online at least once  

According to the survey, in the main group (65-74), every sixth resident or 16.8 percent of this age group went shopping without leaving their home. According to the survey data, quarantine for online shopping in 2020 had the least impact on persons in the age group 55-64 (about 2percent). However, after the protracted restrictions in 2021, 34.1 percent of people of this age had already tried online shopping, i.e. 8.4 percent more than before the pandemic.

At the beginning of 2021, a survey of Lithuanian Internet users conducted by the research company “Gemius” showed that 83 percent of Lithuanians Internet users bought online in 2020 – a third did so several times a month. More than half, 56 percent, of the population said they bought online as a result of the pandemic. In addition, two-fifths of respondents admitted that their spending on online shopping through quarantine has increased. 27 percent of the population believe that by 2021 they will buy even more online.

1. The main factors determining online shopping are the age of consumers, online skills, convenience, reliability, enjoyment and other uncontrollable factors.

Research by foreign researchers has shown that the COVID-19 pandemic has changed consumer decisions and online shopping behaviour.

1. An analysis of the financial and other statistics of businesses involved in e-commerce shows that the COVID-19 pandemic and quarantine had an impact on turnover and profit growth, especially in the first quarter of 2021. After the release of quarantine restrictions, electronic sales revenues fell, but they still remained higher than in the pre-pandemic period.

3.             After the analysis of the data of the e-commerce participants, of the Department of Statistics, of the research company “Gemius”, it can be stated that the COVID-19 pandemic and quarantine had a significant impact on the decision of the Lithuanian population to buy online. This is especially evident in the surveys of individuals and financial data of e‑commerce companies on 2021.